Call me crazy...

[johnnylightnin]

It looks to me like the Big XII and the Pac10 are doing the MWC a favor. If ANYTHING is going to be announced in the next two weeks, it's been a done deal (meaning the commishes knew they had the votes) for a while now. The Pac10 and the Big XII are taking the top teams in the MWC, but they are allowing the MWC to invite Boise first.

Sometime after Boise accepts, the Pac will invite Colorado (with the Big XII's blessing) and Utah. Shortly thereafter, the Big XII invites BYU and UNM. Now, the Pac is at 12 and the Big XII is at 12. The MWC is down to 7, but among those seven are TCU and Boise.

By allowing the MWC to get Boise on board, the Pac and the Big XII give the MWC a chance to hold TCU (without Boise, they would be gone).

At this point, the MWC will send out invites to Houston and Fresno...maybe Nevada. With Non-AQ status now set in stone, it will come down to who is a better salesman, Banowsky or Thompson. If CUSA holds Houston and adds TCU, they could actually be better off after the raid from the BE that is sure to take at least 2 teams from CUSA east.

It won't be the SWC, but it'll be the best non-AQ conference in the land after the WAC reabsorbs the MWC leftovers.

Cross your fingers and hope we make it.

Oh, and this is all speculation.

[parisdog]

How does the B12 stay at 12 teams when they only lose 1 and add 2?

[johnnylightnin]

How does the B12 stay at 12 teams when they only lose 1 and add 2?

That's the first hole...

The second is what about Mizzou and Nebraska. If they didn't leave, you'd see that scenario minus the UNM part. If they did leave, the Big XII would still need one more.

Another possibility is that the PAC is bluffing and they won't expand at all. To replace Mizzou and Nebraska, the Big XII takes Utah and BYU.

[Cactus Rob]

This all makes for some interesting conversation!
A lot of "what ifs" but it is all possible and that is what makes it all fun

[Tbone1]

I'm not totally convinced that the Big12 would bless the theft of Colorado while also watching Utah go to the PAC 10.
At this moment, the Big12 has a better TV deal than the PAC 10 (believe it or not)....so despite their victim-like status in the news....they are actually in a better position to snag UTAH for themselves if they want to be proactive.

If I'm the Big12, I give Mizzou the boot. I don't allow them to leave on their own accord. I say, sign this binding contract (with huge penalties) or get the F out.

Then I go and grab UTAH or BYU or both.

[StrayDawg]

Did anybody see the press conference with the Big XII commish? They played part of it on ESPN today, and he looked like he had soiled britches. His eyes were the size of the camera lenses that he was talking to. He even made the comment that conference realignment was, "scary, scary stuff."

Johnny, of the teams you named to be offered by the MWC, look for Nevada to be WAY ahead of Fresno, and probalby ahead of Houston. They have good academics, they fit regionally, and some other MWC schools (including their arch rival, UNLV) have been stumping for them for years. Fresno has an awfully sordid past when it comes to academics and NCAA violations, which hurts them.

I don't know if it will all play out the way you predicted, but the Boise thing is probably the worst kept secret in college football. Hopefully we will have the opportunity to join our former E-WAC brethren in a more regional conference.

Getting TCU back to to CUSA is a long shot in my opinion. They have the same relationship with SMU that we have with UL-X. That is part of the reason why TCU left for the MWC in the first place, which created a place for Tech in the WAC. A lot of TCU boosters would view a return to CUSA the same way we would view a return to the Sun Belt, which makes their return unlikely.

[champion110]

I think Boise could be making a huge mistake, unless MWC knows that they can hold on to their teams. I think they are going to be raided AFTER Boise joins and it will leave Boise in worse shape that they are now. If I were Boise, I would wait to accept until I KNEW who was going to be in the conference. Of course, they may know that already - as secrets are everywhere right now.

[Dwayne From Minden]

It won't be the SWC, but it'll be the best non-AQ conference in the land after the WAC reabsorbs the MWC leftovers.

100% guarantee that will not happen

[SixWings]

Johnny, of the teams you named to be offered by the MWC, look for Nevada to be WAY ahead of Fresno, and probalby ahead of Houston. They have good academics, they fit regionally, and some other MWC schools (including their arch rival, UNLV) have been stumping for them for years. Fresno has an awfully sordid past when it comes to academics and NCAA violations, which hurts them.

Fresno has a lot more athletic support than UNR, though. UNR's football attendance has been less than ours, and that's with their recent success.

I'm sure their basketball attendance is pretty good, though.

[DeepGreen]

I just don't see the Big 12 bringing in New Mexico. Houston I could see.

[Geaux Dawgs]

Crazy

[bluecrew]

crazy

[inudesu]

Yeah. You're crazy.

[StrayDawg]

Fresno has a lot more athletic support than UNR, though. UNR's football attendance has been less than ours, and that's with their recent success.

I'm sure their basketball attendance is pretty good, though.

I haven't seen those stats, but you are probably right about attendance numbers. The presidents have the final vote, and Nevada's academic standing will help them much more than it will help Fresno (it might even hurt Fresno). There is also some politics involved. Most states realize what Louisiana does not realize: that having two in-state teams competing in the best regional conference is a good thing. It does a lot for fan support, and it makes more money for the programs and the conference. UNLV has been stumping for UNR for a long time, and state politicians would push for MWC membership for Nevada if the opportunity comes up. That might not matter to the conference commissioner, but it matters A LOT to college presidents, because those same legislators control funding to the colleges.

I think a lot of Reno fans feel sort of like we do when it comes to their football team. Just as we would rather play Tulane, Memphis, and Southern Miss....they would rather play UNLV, BYU, and Colorado State. So, a new conference would probably help their attendance numbers. It would not help them as much as CUSA membership would help us, but it would help.

[johnnylightnin]

I just don't see the Big 12 bringing in New Mexico. Houston I could see.

As long as A&M and ut are in the big 12, they won't be adding another Texas school.